图书简介
The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well.
馆藏图书馆
Princeton University Library
Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; Part II. Representativeness: 2. Belief in the law of small numbers Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; 3. Subjective probability: a judgment of representativeness Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky; 4. On the psychology of presiction Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky; 5. Studies of representativeness Maya Bar-Hillel; 6. Judgments of and by representativeness Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; Part III. Causality and Attribution: 7. Popular induction: information is not necessarily informative Richard E. Nisbett, Eugene Borgida, Rick Crandall and Harvey Reed; 8. Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; 9. Shortcomings in the attribution process: on the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments Lee Ross and Craig A. Anderson; 10. Evidential impact of base rates Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; Part IV. Availability: 11. Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; 12. Egocentric biases in availability and attribution Michael Ross and Fiore Sicoly; 13. The availability bias in social perception and interaction Shelley E. Taylor; 14. The simulation heuristic Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky; Part V. Covariation and Control: 15. Informal covariation asssessment: data-based versus theory-based judgments Dennis L. Jennings, Teresa M. Amabile and Lee Ross; 16. The illusion of control Ellen J. Langer; 17. Test results are what you think they are Loren J. Chapman and Jean Chapman; 18. Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: problems and opportunities David M. Eddy; 19. Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making Hillel J. Einhorn; Part VI. Overconfidence: 20. Overconfidence in case-study judgments Stuart Oskamp; 21. A progress report on the training of probability assessors Marc Alpert and Howard Raiffa; 22. Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980 Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff and Lawrence D. Phillips; 23. For those condemned to study the past: heuristics and biases in hindsight Baruch Fischhoff; Part VII. Multistage Evaluation: 24. Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice John Cohen, E. I. Chesnick and D. Haran; 25. Conservatism in human information processing Ward Edwards; 26. The best-guess hypothesis in multistage inference Charles F. Gettys, Clinton Kelly III and Cameron R. Peterson; 27. Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one’s memory Yaacov Trope; Part VIII. Corrective Procedures: 28. The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making Robyn M. Dawes; 29. The vitality of mythical numbers Max Singer; 30. Intuitive prediction: biases and corrective procedures Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky; 31. Debiasing Baruch Fischhoff; 32. Improving inductive inference Richard E. Nesbett, David H. Krantz, Christopher Jepson and Geoffrey T. Fong; Part IX. Risk Perception: 33. Facts versus fears: understanding perceived risk Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff and Sarah Lichtenstein; Part X. Postscript: 34. On the study of statistical intuitions Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky; 35. Variants of uncertainty Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky; References; Index.
Trade Policy 买家须知
- 关于产品:
- ● 正版保障:本网站隶属于中国国际图书贸易集团公司,确保所有图书都是100%正版。
- ● 环保纸张:进口图书大多使用的都是环保轻型张,颜色偏黄,重量比较轻。
- ● 毛边版:即书翻页的地方,故意做成了参差不齐的样子,一般为精装版,更具收藏价值。
关于退换货:
- 由于预订产品的特殊性,采购订单正式发订后,买方不得无故取消全部或部分产品的订购。
- 由于进口图书的特殊性,发生以下情况的,请直接拒收货物,由快递返回:
- ● 外包装破损/发错货/少发货/图书外观破损/图书配件不全(例如:光盘等)
并请在工作日通过电话400-008-1110联系我们。
- 签收后,如发生以下情况,请在签收后的5个工作日内联系客服办理退换货:
- ● 缺页/错页/错印/脱线
关于发货时间:
- 一般情况下:
- ●【现货】 下单后48小时内由北京(库房)发出快递。
- ●【预订】【预售】下单后国外发货,到货时间预计5-8周左右,店铺默认中通快递,如需顺丰快递邮费到付。
- ● 需要开具发票的客户,发货时间可能在上述基础上再延后1-2个工作日(紧急发票需求,请联系010-68433105/3213);
- ● 如遇其他特殊原因,对发货时间有影响的,我们会第一时间在网站公告,敬请留意。
关于到货时间:
- 由于进口图书入境入库后,都是委托第三方快递发货,所以我们只能保证在规定时间内发出,但无法为您保证确切的到货时间。
- ● 主要城市一般2-4天
- ● 偏远地区一般4-7天
关于接听咨询电话的时间:
- 010-68433105/3213正常接听咨询电话的时间为:周一至周五上午8:30~下午5:00,周六、日及法定节假日休息,将无法接听来电,敬请谅解。
- 其它时间您也可以通过邮件联系我们:customer@readgo.cn,工作日会优先处理。
关于快递:
- ● 已付款订单:主要由中通、宅急送负责派送,订单进度查询请拨打010-68433105/3213。
本书暂无推荐
本书暂无推荐