图书简介
Written by an experienced professional who has led Navy Intelligence and CIA analysts in high-stakes situations, Leading Intelligence Analysis: Lessons from the CIA’s Analytic Front Lines introduces the fundamental managerial skills and practical tools needed to lead analysis projects conducted by individuals and teams. Author Bruce Pease provides insights into key questions such as What kind of environment draws out a team’s best work? What brings out their creativity? When does pressure bring out their best insights? When does pressure sap their intellectual energy? and What kind of team builds new knowledge rather than engaging in group-think?
This book draws on the author’s perspective from decades of leading intelligence analysts on critical issues, including war in the Middle East, terrorism after 9/11, and nuclear threats.
Foreword \\ Acknowledgments \\ About the Author \\ Chapter 1: Leading Analysis is Different from Doing Analysis \\ The Leader of Analysis or the Uberanalyst \\ Which Substantive Analyst Responsibilities Carry Over? \\ No Lazy Thinking \\ Setting Standards for the First Time \\ Analyze Everything \\ Chapter 2: Understanding Analysts \\ Some Classic Traps \\ Ten Things Analysts Hate \\ Chapter 3: Shaping the Environment \\ Nurturing Trust is Job 1 \\ Taking the Pulse \\ Seven Critical Balances \\ Stress in the Environment \\ Chapter 4: Choosing the Best Approach and Techniques \\ Evolving Approaches: Three Paradigms \\ Picking your paradigm \\ Blending Approaches \\ The Expanding Menu of Analytic Techniques \\ Keep Your Eye Out for New Choices \\ Chapter 5: Nurturing the New Idea: Creativity, Insight, and Innovation in Analysis \\ Creative Analysis? \\ Stifling Creativity and Innovation in Analysis \\ And What of Insight? \\ Promoting Creativity, Innovation, and Insight \\ Chapter 6: Asking the Right Question \\ Toxic Questioning \\ The Right Question \\ The Wrong Question \\ Chapter 7: The Hardest Question: What Is Going to Happen? Prediction and Warning in Analysis \\ Analyzing Predictability \\ When History Pivots \\ Humility, an Open Mind, and Practice Required \\ Prediction is Always a Gamble \\ Prediction is the Leader’s Responsibility \\ What’s the Worst that Could Happen? Leading Warning \\ What Is Reasonable in an Unreasonable World? \\ Chapter 8: Ethics in Analysis \\ What am I doing in this business? \\ Leading a Dialogue on Values \\ Climbing Down off the Analyst’s High Horse \\ Driving Collection \\ Resisting Politicization \\ Are We Responsible for Consequences? \\ Impact of Covert Action \\ In Closing \\ Chapter 9: Analysis as a Business \\ The Business Part of the Business \\ Ensuring Brand Loyalty (Getting Your Customers Hooked on Your Service) \\ Prioritize Your Customers \\ Tend Your Organization’s Reputation with the Front Office \\ Align Your Enterprise \\ Business Is Too Good—I’m Swamped! \\ Change is Reality \\ It Doesn’t Take an MBA \\ Chapter 10: The Tools of Twenty-First-Century Analysis \\ Judging Tools For Analysis \\ First- and Second-Level IT Tools to Help All Analysts \\ Third-level Tools: Big Data, Data Science, and Predictive Analytics \\ Two Keys: Volume and Repetition \\ The Dreaded—but Inevitable—Black Box \\ The Analyst Is Not About to be Replaced \\ Chapter 11: Analysis at the Speed of Information \\ Get Your Mind Right and Theirs \\ Build an Information Strategy \\ Can we analyze faster? \\ Nurture Your Inner Opportunist \\ Afterword \\ Bibliography \\ Index
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