图书简介

Ch 1.Introduction: Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, Juha Alho, Kaare Christensen, Edward Palmer, James W. Vaupel: SECTION 1. Current practice: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Nico Keilman.- Ch 2. Life Expectancy is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes – A New Challenge for the Art of Projecting Mortality: Edward Palmer .- Ch 3. Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland: Juha Alho.- Ch 4. Mortality Projections in Norway: Helge Brunborg.- Ch 5. Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000–2050 Population Projection: Hans Lundström.- Ch 6. Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach: James W. Vaupel.- Ch 7. Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models – an Epidemiologist’s Perspective: Kaare Christensen.- Ch 8. The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends: Tommy Bengtsson.- SECTION 2. Probabilistic models: Introduction by Nico Keilman.- Ch 9. Erroneous Population Forecasts: Nico Keilman.- Ch 10. Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting: Juha M. Alho.- Ch 11. An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands: Maarten Alders and Joop de Beer.- Ch 12. Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems: Shripad Tuljapurkar.- SECTION 3. The linear rise in life expectancy: History and prospects: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson.- Ch 13. The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days: Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel.- Ch 14. Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends: Ronald Lee.- Ch 15. Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series: Juha M. Alho.- Ch 16. Life Expectancy Convergence among Nations since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income: Jim Oeppen.- Ch 17. Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present: Tommy Bengtsson.- SECTION 4. Causes of death: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Kaare Christensen.- Ch 18. How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update: Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin and Marco Marsili.- Ch 19. Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden – Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Approaches: Måns Rosén.- Ch 20. How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts: Richard Willets.- SECTION 5. Cohort factors: How conditions in early life influence mortality later in life: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson.- Ch 21. A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and Mortality in Sweden: Martin Lindström and George Davey Smith.- Ch 22. Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies: Kaare Christensen.- Ch 23. The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan: Gabriele Doblhammer.- Ch 24. Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective:19th Century Sweden and Belgium: Tommy Bengtsson and George Alter.

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