图书简介
A straightforward, easy-to-use resource on the core principles of critical thinking in intelligence analysis.
The Critical Thinker’s Checklist \\ List of Figures \\ Foreword \\ Preface \\ About the Authors \\ Introduction to the Third Edition \\ Introduction \\ Part I: How Do I Get Started? \\ Chapter 1: Who Are Your Clients? \\ Chapter 2: What Are the Key Questions? \\ Chapter 3: What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis? \\ Chapter 4: How Should I Conceptualize My Product? \\ Chapter 5: What Is My Analytic Approach? \\ Chapter 6: Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer? \\ Part II: Where Is The Information I Need? \\ Chapter 7: How Do Models Help My Analysis? \\ Chapter 8: What Types of Information Are Available? \\ Chapter 9: Can I Trust the Sources? \\ Chapter 10: How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information? \\ Part III: What Is My Argument? \\ Chapter 11: Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded? \\ Chapter 12: Can I Make My Case? \\ Chapter 13: Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses? \\ Chapter 14: How Do I Deal With Politicization? \\ Chapter 15: How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong? \\ Part IV: How Do I Convey My Message Effectively? \\ Chapter 16: Is My Argument Persuasive? \\ Chapter 17: How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data? \\ Chapter 18: How Can Graphics Support My Analysis? \\ Chapter 19: How Do I Present My Message in the Most Compelling Way? \\ Chapter 20: How Do I Know When I Am Finished? \\ Part V: Case Studies \\ Case Study I: Uncharted Territory \\ Case Study II: Russian Disinformation \\ Case Study III: Blackout on the Eastern Seaboard! \\ Case Study IV: The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers \\ Case Study V: Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany \\ Case Study VI: The Case of Iraq’s Aluminum Tubes \\ Glossary of Terms \\ List of Names \\ Recommended Readings \\ US Government Publications \\ Index \\ The Analyst’s Roadmap
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