图书简介 馆藏图书馆

1. Warming up; Wimbledon; Commentators; An example; Correlation and causality; Why statistics; Sports data and human behavior; Why tennis?; Structure of the book; Further reading; 2. Richard; Meeting Richard; From point to game; The tiebreak; Serving first in a set; During the set; Best-of-three versus best-of-five; Upsets; Long matches: Isner-Mahut 2010; Rule changes: the no-ad rule; Abolishing the second service; Further reading; 3. Forecasting; Forecasting with Richard; Federer-Nadal, Wimbledon final 2008; Effect of smaller =p; Kim Clijsters defeats Venus Williams, US Open 2010; Effect of larger =p; Djokovic-Nadal, Australian Open 2012; In-play betting; Further reading; 4. Importance; What is importance?; Big points in a game; Big games in a set; The vital seventh game; Big sets; Are all points equally important?; The most important point; Three importance profiles; Further reading; 5. Point data; The Wimbledon data set; Two selection problems; Estimators, estimates, and accuracy; Development of tennis over time; Winning a point on service unraveled; Testing a hypothesis: men versus women; Aces and double faults; Breaks and rebreaks; Are our summary statistics too simple?; Further reading; 6. The method of moments; Our summary statistics are too simple; The method of moments; Enter Miss Marple; Re-estimating p by the method of moments; Men versus women revisited; Beyond the mean: variation over players; Reliability of summary statistics: a rule of thumb; Filtering out the noise; Noise-free variation over players; Correlation between opponents; Why bother?; Further reading; 7. Quality; Observable variation over players; Ranking; Round, bonus, and malus; Significance, relevance, and sensitivity; The complete model; Winning a point on service; Other service characteristics; Aces and double faults; Further reading; 8. First and second service; Is the second service more important than the first?; Differences in service probabilities explained; Joint analysis: bivariate GMM; Four service dimensions; Four-variate GMM; Further reading; 9. Service strategy; The server’s trade-off; The y-curve; Optimal strategy: one service; Optimal strategy: two services; Existence and uniqueness; Four regularity conditions for the optimal strategy; Functional form of y-curve; Efficiency defined; Efficiency of the average player; Observations for the key probabilities: Monte Carlo; Efficiency estimates; Mean match efficiency gains; Efficiency gains across matches; Impact on the paycheck; Why are players inefficient?; Rule changes; Serving in volleyball; Further reading; 10. Within a match; The idea behind the point model; From matches to points; First results at point level; Simple dynamics; The baseline model; Top players and mental stability; Lessons from the baseline model; New balls; Further reading; 11. Special points and games; Big points; Big points and the baseline model; Serving first revisited; The toss; Further reading; 12. Momentum; Streaks, the hot hand, and winning mood; Why study tennis?; Winning mood in tennis; Breaks and rebreaks; Missed breakpoints; The encompassing model; Further reading; 13. The hypotheses revisited; Winning a point on service is an iid process; It is an advantage to serve first in a set; Every point (game, set) is equally important to both players; The seventh game is the most important game in the set; All points are equally important; The probability that the service is in, is the same in the men’s singles as in the women’s singles; The probability of a double fault is the same in the men’s singles as in the women’s singles; After a break the probability of being broken back increases; Summary statistics give a precise impression of a player’s performance; Quality is a pyramid; Top players must grow into the tournament; Men’s tennis is more competitive than women’s tennis; A player is as good as his or her second service; Players have an efficient service strategy; Players play safer at important points; Players take more risk when they are in a winning mood; Top players are more stable than others; New balls are an advantage to the server; Real champions win the big points; The winner of the toss should select to serve; Winning mood exists; After missing breakpoint(s) there is an increased probability of being broken in the next game; Appendix A: List of symbols; Winning probabilities; Score probabilities and importance; Service probabilities; Quality; Operators; Miscellaneous variables; Random/unexplained parts; Parameters; Miscellaneous symbols; Appendix B: Data, software, and mathematical derivations; Data Program Richard; Mathematical derivations; Bibliography; Index

Trade Policy 买家须知